By Chris Castles
So, you’re in the car and you’re driving to work. If you’re in the country it might be a quick trip but if you’re in the city it’s more likely to take a little longer. That’s OK. The overnight finance report is just coming onto the radio.
The broker comes on and says what’s happened to the Aussie dollar overnight, goes through the oil price and whether it’s gone up or down, gold also gets a mention. Then comes the overnight market analysis. The Nikkei’s unchanged…then there’s an explanation of why? The Dow’s gone up… why is also dutifully explained.
And then it comes! The prediction about how our market is expected to open today.
Have you ever stopped to listen, and then taken notice of what actually happens on the market opening? Start listening from today and see if you notice a pattern. And when you notice the pattern ask yourself if the outcome is because of skill, or dumb luck. Then ask yourself how you know that to be the case. Gets confusing doesn’t it.
So why do we take any notice? Who cares anyway? What does the price of oil or what any of the markets have done overnight matter an ounce to achieving our long term financial objectives? The answer…it doesn’t.
So the next time you hear a prediction about what markets are going to do, just for fun take note and then check it out. After that ignore it. Because it doesn’t matter.
Need some help sorting out skill from luck? Give us a call on 1800 283 895.
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